07/03/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There's some sort of buzz going on right now in Los Angeles. Is Eric Karros making a return to the Dodgers? Did Juan Pierre embarrass himself by rapping in public again?
Oh wait, Manny Ramirez is returning from his 50-game suspension Friday to help the National League West-leading Dodgers kick off a nine-game road trip against the Padres, Mets and Brewers.
If you don't own a television, do not read newspapers or web sites, then you would have no idea that Ramirez is back after violating the league's substance abuse policy for taking performance enhancing drugs. One of the most feared hitters this past decade, Ramirez, who's been the talk of the town lately, was slapped with a 50-game suspension on May 7 and baseball was slapped even harder in the face. The league's poster boy for antics and dominant skills, Ramirez served his time and even got some swings in at the minor league level. Now he just has to adjust to major league pitching and that certainly won't be a problem.
"We're looking forward to having Manny back," Dodgers manager Joe Torre said earlier this week on the team's official site. "I think he'll add something to our lineup."
How perceptive of you, Joe.
You have to feel bad for Padres starter Chad Gaudin, who gets to face Ramirez Friday night at Petco Park. LA fans will surely hit the road to San Diego to see one of the best hitters in baseball take center stage. The Dodgers played to a solid 29-21 mark without the slugger in the lineup and still lead the NL West with a comfortable 7 1/2-game lead over San Francisco. They were 6 1/2 games ahead of the competition and 21-8 when Ramirez was suspended.
LA still has the best record in baseball at 50-29 and got a huge lift from Juan Pierre in Ramirez's absence. Pierre started all 50 games in left field and did a fine job for Torre, going 68-for-214 for a .318 average with 14 doubles, 21 RBI, 31 runs, 15 walks and 20 steals in those games.
The Dodgers won't return to Chavez Ravine until after the All-Star break, when the "Mannywood" seats re-open for business. Ramirez was hitting .348 with six homers and 20 RBI before the suspension.
WILD CARD-LEADING GIANTS OPEN HOMESTAND
The San Francisco Giants will play by the Bay until after the All-Star break, as they open a 10-game homestand Friday versus Houston, Florida and San Diego.
The Giants (42-36) have won three straight as the host and sport a 24-12 record at AT&T Park this season. While winning the NL West division is a long shot with a 7 1/2-game deficit, San Francisco is currently in the driver's seat in the wild card standings. The lead isn't a big one, just a half-game ahead of Milwaukee and St. Louis, but it's better than not having one at all.
Starting pitching has been the key to the Giants' latest success, especially Matt Cain. Cain will most likely earn an All-Star nod and has lasted at least seven innings over four consecutive trips to the hill. He is 9-2 with a 2.48 ERA in 16 starts this season, and has taken away some of the load off of Tim Lincecum's young shoulder's.
Lincecum, last year's NL Cy Young Award winner, is just plain nasty. He has recorded three complete games over his past four starts, and has lasted no less than eight innings over that span. The righty is 8-2 with a 2.37 ERA through 16 outings in 2009, and will most likely join Cain on the NL All-Star roster.
Youngster Ryan Sadowski will shoot for an encore performance tonight in the opener against the Astros. Sadowski made his major league debut on Sunday at Milwaukee and threw six shutout innings in a 7-0 victory, scattering four hits and striking out two batters with three walks. The righty was 5-2 with a 4.11 earned run average in 13 starts for Triple-A Fresno before being recalled.
ROCKIES' MARQUIS LEADS NL IN WINS
The Colorado Rockies took a shot on Jason Marquis this offseason and the right-hander hasn't disappointed.
Marquis is on pace to finish with a career high in wins, as he sports a 10-5 record and a 3.87 earned run average in 16 starts this season. He posted his NL-leading 10th win in fashion on June 30 at the Los Angeles Dodgers, as he recorded his second complete game this season and third shutout of his career. Marquis held the Dodgers to a pair of hits in the 3-0 victory and fanned three batters. He also drove in two runs and threw 86 pitches, 66 for strikes.
"I can promise you in all the games that I've managed in the big leagues, I can't tell out that I've had a starting pitcher that pitched a nine-inning, complete-game shutout and did it with less than 90 pitches," Rockies manager Jim Tracy said on the team's site following the game.
It was Colorado's second win in 11 games against LA this season -- and both were with Marquis on the mound. It also gave the Rockies 21 wins in June, a club record for any month. The Rox won 20 in the September surge of 2007 that led to a playoff berth and their first World Series appearance.
The veteran right-hander has posted 10 or more wins in six straight seasons and improved to 6-2 over his previous nine starts. Marquis is on pace to finish with a career high in wins, and his best campaign came in 2004 as a member of the St. Louis Cardinals. He was 15-7 in 32 starts that year.
Colorado (41-37) is back home after a lengthy road trip and will open a three- game series tonight against the NL West-rival Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field. It went 5-4 on a nine-game road swing through Anaheim, Oakland and Los Angeles and dropped two of three matchups with the Dodgers, including Wednesday's 1-0 loss behind Rafael Furcal's pinch-hit RBI single in the eighth inning off Rockies starter Jason Hammel. Hammel pitched brilliantly, allowing only that one run on five hits with five strikeouts through eight innings.
The Rockies, who are one game behind San Francisco for the top spot in the NL wild card standings, have won 21 of their past 26 games and own a 23-9 record under Tracy.
GONZALEZ SLOWING DOWN IN SAN DIEGO?
Hits and homers have been hard to come by for San Diego Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who has just two home runs since going deep in four straight games from May 30-June 2.
Gonzalez also hasn't had more than one hit in a game since a 4-for-4 effort against the Seattle Mariners on June 18. He has just seven total hits since then, spanning 41 at-bats and 13 games.
On a more positive note for the slugging Friar, Gonzalez has appeared in every game dating back to August 15, 2007 -- a stretch of 285 games. San Diego's all-time record for consecutive games played is held by Steve Garvey, who appeared in 305 straight games.
San Diego (34-44) has lost two straight, six of nine and 13 of its last 19 games. It fell to just 1-3 on a seven-game homestand versus the Astros and Dodgers. The Padres will welcome Manny Ramirez and LA to Petco Park for a three-game series over the weekend. Ramirez is coming off a 50-game suspension for the use of performance enhancing drugs.
SERIES WINS NOT COMING FOR D-BACKS
The Arizona Diamondbacks are brutal. They sit last in the NL West standings at 19 games off the pace and are also 11 1/2 games behind in the wild card race.
Over its last 11 series, Arizona (31-48) is only 1-8-2, with the lone victory coming against the Kansas City Royals from June 16-18. The D-Backs haven't won a series against a National League team since winning three of four matchups against the Florida Marlins from May 19-21.
Much of the blame can be directed towards the starting pitching staff. Brandon Webb is pretty much done for the season, Jon Garland hasn't won since May 19 and Doug Davis owns one win since May 4. Dan Haren and Max Scherzer have been respectable, but overall the rotation is under siege.
Garland has lost six of his last eight starts after opening the campaign 4-2 in eight trips to the hill. Garland is just 4-8 with a 4.81 ERA in 16 starts.
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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In part two of MySportsbook.com’s draft preview, we’ll take a look at a division that was extremely disappointing last season: the NFC South. Many “experts” predicted the Panthers to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, of course they could not even make the playoffs in an extremely weak NFC. The Saints definitely made up for the disappointing seasons of their NFC South brethren by exploding out of no where en route to the NFC Championship game. For the avid NFL gambler, it is imperative to pay attention to the NFL draft. Although free agency gets a ton of publicity, the successful franchises build their teams around the draft.
1. New Orleans Saints
Who would have thought this time last year that the Saints would be the favorites to win the NFC South for the 2007 campaign? New Orleans is loaded with firepower on the offensive side of the ball but with the exodus of Joe Horn they will most likely look to draft a WR on Day 1. Despite having the NFL’s 3rd ranked pass defense last season, the Saints will most likely upgrade their CB’s with one of their first two picks. Other possibilities for the Saints will be TE and DT. Because of where they will be selecting (27th), the Saints could go the “best available player” route which could net a LB.
Key additions: Eric Johnson TE, Troy Evans LB, David Patten WR
Key loses: Joe Horn WR,
Team needs: CB, WR, TE, LB, DT
Possible draftees: Aaron Ross CB Texas, Darrelle Revis CB Pitt, Ted Ginn Jr. WR OSU, Paul Posluszny LB PSU, Chris Houston CB Arkansas, Greg Olsen TE Miami
2. Carolina Panthers
Carolina was one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL last season. With the signing of David Carr, expect the very first quarterback controversy to come out of Carolina if Jake Delhomme doesn’t rebound quickly from an average 2007 season. With veteran safety Mike Minter getting up there in age, they will look to draft a safety on Day 1 but probably not in the first round. LB is another need with the loss of Chris Draft to go along with Dan Morgan’s concussion problems. If TE Greg Olsen is still on the board, he might be too good to pass up despite their needs on the defensive side of the ball.
Key additions: David Carr QB
Key loses: Chris Draft LB
Team needs: LB, TE, S, OT
Possible draftees: Greg Olsen TE Miami, Patrick Willis LB Ole Miss, Paul Posluszny LB PSU, Levi Brown OT PSU
3. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons were another NFC South team to have a disappointing 2007 season. The Falcons have been plenty busy during the off season with plenty of players coming and going including a new head coach. The Falcons were able to improve their draft position with the trade of coveted backup QB Matt Schaub. High on the list of Day 1 needs will be a defensive end to replace Patrick Kerney and a hard hitting safety since Lawyer Milloy is nearing the end of his career. With an additional 2nd round pick, the Falcons could attempt to trade up to acquire local product WR Calvin Johnson.
Key additions: Joey Harrington QB, Toniu Fonoti OG, Joe Horn WR
Key loses: Justin Griffen RB, Patrick Kerney DE, Matt Lehr OG, Ashley Lelie WR, Matt Schaub QB
Team needs: DE, S, OT, WR, DT
Possible draftees: LaRon Landry S LSU, Amobi Okoye DT Louisville, Levi Brown OT PSU, Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas, Alan Branch DT Michigan
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Age really caught up to the Bucs last season. The Bucs still have plenty of household names on defense in Ronde Barber, Simeon Rice and Derrick Brooks but the one thing those three have in common is unfortunately age. It is imperative for the Bucs to get much younger, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Despite having bigger needs on the defensive side of the ball, WR Calvin Johnson is the most likely pick if he is still available when the Bucs pick at the four spot. This would suit Bucs’ faithful just fine as Johnson is widely considered the top talent in the draft and it is a position of need for the Bucs.
Key additions: Jeff Garcia QB, Kevin Carter DE, Torrie Cox CB, Cato June LB
Key loses: Dewayne White DE, Sean Mahan OG
Team needs: WR, LB, DE, CB (Youth on defense!)
Possible draftees: Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech, Gains Adams DE Clemson, Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas
It is never too early to start betting on the NFL. Log on to MySportsbook.com to checkout all of the NFL futures for the upcoming season. On the clock: the NFC North
Odds to win the NFC South:
New Orleans Saints 8-5
Carolina Panthers 2-1
Atlanta Falcons 12-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-2
Odds to win the NFC:
New Orleans Saints 13-2
Carolina Panthers 7-1
Atlanta Falcons 20-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25-1
Odds to win the Super Bowl:
New Orleans Saints 18-1
Carolina Panthers 20-1
Atlanta Falcons 50-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 75-1
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