NLDS Preview - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies

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09/30/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies had another September to remember and fended off the New York Mets once again to capture their second straight National League East title. Now the Phillies will get a chance to redeem themselves after a miserable showing in the first round a year ago when they take on the Milwaukee Brewers in the best-of-five NLDS.

The Phillies, who went 17-8 in the month, reached the 90-win mark this season for the first time since the National League champion squad of 1993 recorded 97 victories. The last time Philadelphia won back-to-back division titles was the 1980-81 campaigns. The Phillies are in the playoffs for only the third time since the 1993 season.

Last year, though, Charlie Manuel's ballclub ran into a red-hot Colorado Rockies team that took the league by storm, as they were swept en route to a National League pennant.

Now the Phillies have ace CC Sabathia and the surging Milwaukee Brewers to put up with in the opening round of the playoffs. The Phillies went 5-1 against the Brewers in the regular season, including a four-game sweep of the ballclub in mid-September at Citizens Bank Park, the site of Games 1 and 2 of this postseason series. After the sweep, the Brewers were knocked out of the top spot in the wild card standings and manager Ned Yost was fired. Since then interim manager Dale Sveum has done an admiral job getting Milwaukee back on track. Sabathia is another reason for Milwaukee's success, going 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA and seven complete games (three shutouts) in 17 starts since joining the club in a deal with the Cleveland Indians in July.

Milwaukee had a tough road to travel for its first postseason berth since losing to the St. Louis Cardinals in seven games in the 1982 World Series. The Brewers were known as "Harvey's Wallbangers" that season after finishing with the best record in baseball at 95-67 before eventually bowing out to the Cardinals, four games to three, in what was dubbed as the "Suds Series".

The Brewers hope some of their regular-season success of this season will froth over into the playoffs, as they also fended off the Mets for playoff positioning. Milwaukee beat out New York for the NL Wild Card spot on the last day of the regular season, topping the Chicago Cubs on Sunday while the Mets floundered against the Florida Marlins down the stretch for the second year in a row. Milwaukee rode the over-worked arm of Sabathia, who made three straight starts on three days' rest to get the Brew Crew over the hump. Sabathia is slated to make it four straight starts on short rest Thursday in Game 2.

Young right-hander Yovani Gallardo will take the ball for Milwaukee in Game 1 and will be opposed by Philadelphia lefty Cole Hamels.

LINEUP

When all cylinders are clicking for the Phillies, their lineup is one of the most dangerous in the major leagues. They have three big bat threats in Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Pat Burrell, but the biggest concern for Sveum will be Howard.

The 2006 NL MVP enjoyed an awesome month at the plate and led the majors with 48 homers and 146 RBI. In September, Howard batted .352 (31-88) with seven doubles, two triples, 11 home runs, 32 RBI and 26 runs scored. He also posted a slugging percentage of .852 and an on-base percentage of .422 during the month. Howard has thrust himself in the MVP race again and is also the first Phillie ever with three consecutive 40-homer seasons.

Utley was on an MVP pace earlier this season before slowing down near the All- Star break. The second baseman hit .292 with a career-high 33 homers and 104 runs batted in. He also scored 113 runs and will be a big problem to Milwaukee's pitching staff since he can hit either lefty or right-handed pitchers.

Burrell, meanwhile, played well in his contract year, finishing with a .250 batting average, 33 home runs, 86 RBI and 74 runs. The left fielder has more trouble against right-hander's and tends to swing in one motion. He rarely goes opposite field but his power is one to be reckoned with.

The rest of Manuel's lineup consists of speed and line-drive hitters.

Shortstop and leadoff hitter Jimmy Rollins had a subpar year after winning the National League MVP Award in 2007, finishing with a .277 average, 11 homers, 47 stolen bases, 59 RBI and 74 runs scored. Rollins spent some time on the disabled list earlier in the season and has been at full strength ever since. His only bold prediction in the offseason was that the Phillies would win 100 games, and was just eight wins shy of that mark. Center fielder Shane Victorino, right fielder Jayson Werth, catcher Carlos Ruiz and third baseman Pedro Feliz will most likely be in the starting lineup for Manuel in Game 1 on Wednesday. Werth enjoyed a breakout season with a career high 24 home runs and 67 RBI. Victorino is a switch-hitting threat with speed, mixed power and a great glove in the outfield. He suffered shin injury on Saturday when he collided with Rollins and is expected to be ready this week for Philadelphia, which led the NL this season with 214 homers.

Sveum's lineup features a few big hitters as well with Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Mike Cameron and J.J. Hardy. Braun and Fielder are the studs of the bunch and both finished with 30-plus homers and more than 100 RBI this season.

Braun led the team in batting average (.285), homers (37) and runs batted in (106) while Fielder finished with 34 homers and 102 RBI. Braun, the 2007 NL Rookie of the Year, battled through a rib cage injury this month and is back at full strength.

Fielder is swinging a hot bat at the right time despite having his 17-game hitting streak come to an end on Sunday against Chicago. He went 0-for-3 and batted .409 (27-for-66) during the streak with six homers and 19 RBI.

Cameron ended the year by hitting safely in six consecutive games and hit .243 with 25 home runs and 70 RBI this season. Cameron, who played in 120 games this season after missing time because of injuries, is a solid outfielder with a strong arm. Milwaukee's leadoff man is making his fourth playoff appearance.

Hardy has enjoyed two straight solid seasons in which he has compiled 25 or more homers and 70-plus RBI. He ended with a career-high .283 batting average with 24 homers, 74 runs batted in and a .343 on-base percentage.

Third baseman Russell Branyan, right fielder Corey Hart, second baseman Rickie Weeks and catcher Jason Kendall make up the rest of Sveum's lineup and are quite similar to Philadelphia's role players. Branyan and Weeks are much like Victorino with their build, speed and ability to hit the ball to all corners of the field. Hart enjoyed a solid year and hit .268 with 20 homers and a career-best 91 runs batted in through 157 games this season. He gave the Phillies some bulletin board material in a pep rally for the club by stating how the Brewers will "kick some butt" in Philadelphia. Kendall completed his first season with Milwaukee and started the last 34 games of the season, He batted .233 over that span and also set a club record by starting 149 games behind the plate.

EDGE: PHILADELPHIA

STARTING PITCHING

Hamels will again open the playoffs on the mound for the Phillies in Game 1 Wednesday. He lost to Jeff Francis and the Rockies in the NLDS opener at Citizens Bank Park last year before posting a 14-10 record and a 3.09 ERA in 33 starts during the 2008 regular season. The young left-hander should be more relaxed this time around against Milwaukee and is 2-1 with a 4.41 earned run average in five lifetime matchups with the Brewers. Hamels last faced Milwaukee in a 7-3 victory on September 13 and hurled 6 1/3 innings of two-run ball for the win.

Fiery right-hander Brett Myers will get the nod in Game 2 for the Phillies, who are trying to win a postseason game for the first time since the 1993 World Series against the Toronto Blue Jays. Myers opened the 2008 season with some issues and was then sent down to the minors to adjust. After his demotion, Myers pitched very well but lost his last two starts of the regular season and three of four trips to the hill. He is 4-1 with a 1.77 ERA in eight career games (four starts) against the Brewers, including a two- hitter in mid-September at home. Manuel will hand the ball to Jamie Moyer in Game 3 Saturday at Milwaukee's Miller Park. Moyer went 6-0 over his last 10 starts with the Phillies posting a 9-1 mark over that stretch. He went 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA in 33 starts in 2008 and is making his fifth playoff appearance. The southpaw is 9-5 in 22 career games (17 starts) against Milwaukee.

If necessary, Joe Blanton will start Game 4 for the Phillies at Miller Park. Blanton, a right-hander, went 4-0 with a lofty 4.20 earned run average in 13 starts with the Phillies since coming over via trade from Oakland.

Sveum will roll the dice with Gallardo in the first game on Wednesday since Sabathia will not be ready and Ben Sheets is out with an elbow problem. Gallardo, who tore the ACL in his right knee on May 1, was given the starting nod on Monday for the biggest game in Brewers history since 1982. The righty made four starts this season and pitched to a 1.88 earned run average. Gallardo faced the Phillies once in his career on August 3, 2007 in a 2-1 victory at Miller Park, allowing one run and four hits with seven K's to record the win.

The biggest story of this playoff series is the longevity of Sabathia, who will take the ball in Game 2 at Citizens Bank Park. Brewers general manager Doug Melvin pulled the trigger on a deal that landed the 2007 AL Cy Young Award winner and has been reaping the benefits ever since. Sabathia pitched three straight games on three days' rest and helped the team into the postseason with a four-hitter over the Cubs on Sunday. The southpaw didn't face the Phillies during the regular season and will have the advantage on Thursday. Sabathia is 1-1 with a 4.97 earned run average in two career starts against Philadelphia. Expect to see Sabathia again if the series goes five games.

Jeff Suppan gets the ball back at Miller Park for Game 3 and went 10-10 with a 4.96 ERA in 31 starts this season. Suppan, though, ended the regular season 0-3 in five trips to the hill and is only 3-2 in 12 career starts against the Phillies. The Phillies are batting .329 against the righty, who has pitched to a 6.13 earned run average in this series. Dave Bush is slated to take the mound in Game 4, if necessary, at Miller Park. Bush compiled a 9-10 mark and a 4.18 ERA in 31 games (29 starts) this season. The right-hander has faced Philadelphia six times in his career, going 0-0 with a 5.88 ERA over 33 2/3 frames.

EDGE: PHILLIES

BULLPEN

While the Phillies have an advantage over Milwaukee in starting pitching, they also have an edge when it comes to the bullpen. The only reasons for that is Philadelphia's 79-0 mark when leading after eight innings and closer Brad Lidge, who was a perfect 41-for-41 in save opportunities. The righty had a 1.10 earned run average in save situations and a 0.61 ERA in his last 15 trips to the mound.

Lidge, the NL's Comeback Player of the Year, was 2-0 with a 1,95 ERA overall this season.

The Phillies had one of the best bullpens in the National League in 2008 with right-handers Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin and Clay Condrey each winning three or more games. Southpaw J.C. Romero is a tested veteran and Philadelphia's best option against left-handed hitters. Scott Eyre is another left-hander at Manuel's disposal.

Salomon Torres took over as closer for the unproductive Eric Gagne. Torres was 28-for-35 in save chances and compiled a 7-5 record with a 3.49 earned run average this season. Gagne notched 10 saves and went 4-3 with a 5.44 ERA for the Brewers, who have righties Guillermo Mota and Seth McClung and left- handers Brian Shouse and Manny Parra to choose from for relief.

EDGE: PHILLIES

MANAGERS

Manuel is back in the postseason for the second straight year with the Phillies and already experienced playoff success as manager of the Cleveland Indians. He didn't get much from his team in the 2007 NLDS against the Rockies, but the team displayed a different attitude after winning the NL East division this time around. Instead of celebrating the first postseason appearances since 1993 a year ago, the Phillies vowed to not make it another three-and-out in 2008. Manuel has the better lineup, starting rotation and more experience in the dugout than young Milwaukee interim skipper Sveum.

The Brewers seemed more relaxed after the firing of Ned Yost despite the former manager's success. Sveum was the third-base coach before his temporary promotion and is in his third season with the ballclub. Sveum, the former manager of Double-A Altoona, will get a shot on the big stage this week after guiding the Brewers to their first postseason appearance in 26 years.

EDGE: PHILLIES

BENCH

Milwaukee has a slight edge on the bench with the likes of veterans Ray Durham, Craig Counsell, Gabe Kapler and Mike Lamb. Counsell already has a pair of World Series rings with the Florida Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks. He may also share time at third base with Branyan.

The main reserves for the Phillies are Greg Dobbs, Chris Coste, Eric Bruntlett and Matt Stairs. Dobbs played in 128 games this season and can fill any vacancy on the field. He had nine homers, 40 RBI and a .301 batting average this season. Bruntlett filled in for Rollins earlier in the season and did a fine job, while Stairs came over from Toronto in August.

EDGE: BREWERS

PROGNOSIS

The Phillies really want to go out and prove to the baseball world and themselves that they are for real. After getting swept in three games by Colorado last season, the pressure is on Philadelphia to have a better showing as two-time National League East champions. The team is more focused and relaxed, though the biggest concern for the Phillies will be the offensive production of Utley, Howard and Burrell. The big three were dreadful in the 2007 NLDS against the red-hot Rockies and will be relied on again to carry the load against Milwaukee. The Brewers can only hope Sabathia's arm will not fatigue after working the big lefty to the bone ever since he donned a Milwaukee jersey. Sabathia, who will be pitching on short rest once more, is a winner almost every time he takes the ball as of late. The same can't be said for the rest of the pitching staff, however. The rotation was dealt a huge blow with Sheets out with an elbow problem and will attempt to slow down a dangerous Philadelphia lineup. It will be a mystery how the Brewers fare in this series with somebody other than Sabathia on the mound.

Prediction: PHILLIES IN FOUR